Since Tom Brady’s departure ended the New England Patriots’ reign over the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills have firmly established themselves as the division’s top contenders.
The Bills have claimed four consecutive AFC East titles and boast the second-most wins in the NFL since 2020, trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs. This impressive run of dominance has kept the Miami Dolphins in the division’s second spot, despite their recent successes.
The Dolphins have maintained a winning record for four consecutive years and secured playoff berths in the last two seasons. However, their success has not translated into victories over the Buffalo Bills, having defeated them only once in nine encounters during this period, including the 2022 playoffs. The Bills have dominated the matchup, boasting a 13–2 record against Miami since 2017.
This historical context adds extra significance to Thursday’s game (8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video) in Miami Gardens. The Dolphins are eager to break their losing streak against the Bills and gain an early advantage in their quest for their first division title since 2008.
Last January, the Dolphins had a chance to end their losing streak against the Bills in a crucial Week 18 game for the AFC East title. Despite three turnovers, Josh Allen delivered a game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter, leading the Bills to a 21–14 victory.
This win secured Buffalo the second seed in the AFC, while Miami fell to sixth place. This seeding difference proved significant, as it led to the Dolphins facing the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in the cold, rather than enjoying a home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Both the Bills and Dolphins needed impressive comebacks to start their seasons with a win. Buffalo fell behind 17–3 to the Arizona Cardinals, but Josh Allen’s leadership turned the game around, securing a 34–28 victory. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill helped Miami overcome a 17–7 halftime deficit to win 20–17 with a last-second field goal.
The Dolphins were missing key players, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and guard Robert Hunt, against the Jaguars. Despite this, Miami still put significant pressure on Trevor Lawrence. Although their running game struggled, Tagovailoa shone by leading all quarterbacks in Week 1 with 338 passing yards.
On Sunday, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both surpassed 100 receiving yards, while running back De’Von Achane added 76 receiving yards. However, Achane is a game-time decision due to an ankle injury, and running back Raheem Mostert has been ruled out with a chest injury.
Sunday marked the Bills’ first game without wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who had been their top receiver for four consecutive years. Despite his absence, Josh Allen adapted by connecting with rookie Keon Coleman four times for a team-high 51 yards, and he also found Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins for touchdowns. However, Buffalo felt the impact of missing linebacker Matt Milano (biceps), as the Cardinals averaged five yards per carry against them.
Cornerback Taron Johnson (forearm) has been ruled out for Week 2, and Josh Allen’s non-throwing hand injury from Sunday’s game against Arizona is worth monitoring given the short week.
This Thursday marks the earliest meeting between the Bills and Dolphins since 2021, with Miami favored by 2.5 points at Hard Rock Stadium, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with an over/under set at 48.5, the second-highest total of the week.
The teams will face off again less than two months later in Orchard Park, N.Y., in Week 9. If the AFC East race remains tight, this head-to-head matchup could prove crucial for tiebreaker purposes. Thursday presents a key opportunity for the Dolphins to gain an early advantage or for the Bills to reaffirm their status as the team to beat.
