On Week 4 of Sunday Night Football predictions (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), the AFC West-leading Chiefs (-9.5) travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the struggling 1-2 Jets. Even though this was supposed to be a must-see matchup heading into Week 1, the Chiefs are already 9.5-point road favorites after a dominating 41-10 victory over the uninspired Bears in Week 1.
The Jets’ defense is still among the best in the league, as they limited the Patriots to only 15 points last week. However, the team’s offense is terrible, managing just 10 points and converting on just two of 14 third downs. Against a Chiefs defense that has had the fourth-lowest success rate (39.1%) after three weeks, quarterback Zach Wilson ranks worst among QBs in anticipated points added per play (-0.279 EPA), signaling difficulties on SNF. Trevor Siemian, the experienced quarterback the Jets acquired to be Wilson’s successor, will not play in this game.
Can the Jets pull off an upset, or will the Super Bowl champs easily improve to 3-1? We’ll provide the latest odds from BetMGM, as well as our pick for this Week 4 showdown between the Jets and Chiefs, so you can make an informed wager on the game on Sunday night.
Jets vs. Chiefs odds, spread, maximum/minimum
- Point differential: Chiefs -9.5 (-110); Jets +9.5 (-110)
- Maximum (-110) and Minimum (-110) of 42.5 and 42.5, respectively
- Spread: Jets +340, Chiefs -450
This offseason’s Mahomes-Rodgers matchup had the Chiefs as one-point road favorites. Kansas City is near double-digit road favorites after Rodgers’ season-ending injury and New York’s 1-2 start. The Jets’ offense appears hopeless with Wilson at the helm; thus, a radical change like an 8.5-point adjustment is necessary.
A total of 42.5 points seems low for a game featuring the Chiefs’ potent attack. Given that their opponent scores 14 points per game on average (with the Jets’ walk-off kick return TD in Week 1), it is clear why the total is what it is.
How about taking the Chiefs minus the points?
We don’t trust Wilson’s offense to generate enough scoring drives to cover almost double digits as a road favorite in the NFL. Even though New York’s offensive line was questionable coming into the season, they did a good job of protecting quarterback Russell Wilson and providing him time to throw in Week 2’s defeat to New England. The Jets’ pass-blocking grade of 77.0 was their best of the season, according to PFF, but Wilson could only lead them to two scoring drives.
The Jets’ defense is good enough to cause problems for the Chiefs’ offense, but Kansas City has more than enough firepower to win and cover the 9.5-point spread. Week 3 saw a return to form for Kansas City’s offense, even if it was against the Bears. The Chiefs finished the week with the second-best dropback success rate (60.5%) in the NFL, behind only the Dolphins. Bet for the Chiefs to win their third consecutive game while covering the spread.
What about the over/under for the Jets/Chiefs game?
New York scored just 10 points, even when their offensive line was at its best. It’s hard to support the OVER on 42.5 points when the Chiefs have the third-best dropback success percentage in the league (39.3%) and have done a great job of keeping opposing offenses off schedule.
Given the inefficiency of the Jets’ passing attack, the UNDER is the bet here, even if early Chiefs scoring pressure causes Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett to call more passing plays, which would normally benefit the OVER.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown for more than 280.5 yards.
Mahomes has a good chance to throw for more than 280.5 yards since the Jets’ rush defense has been far less effective than their run defense through three games. Despite facing two of the greatest passing offenses in the league, the Bills and Cowboys, the Jets have allowed the eighth-highest dropback EPA (0.183) and success rate (49.6%).
If Isiah Pacheco and company are unable to get traction on the ground, Mahomes may have greater success passing against the Jets’ defense, which is sixth in rush EPA (-0.240) and seventh in rushing success rate (33.7%). Even though he only threw for 272 yards in Week 3, Mahomes was taken out of the game in the third quarter with the Chiefs leading 41-0.
